Trends

Last December, we predicted that the housing/credit-led recession would bottom out this summer and start to climb out of the doldrums by the first quarter of '09. There are rumblings that we may have been onto something.

Housing sales in Central Florida are... up? Just slightly and still at prices well below the peak of '05-'06, but with inventories holding steads or decreasing, any uptick in sales activity with no depression in prices is a positive trend--especially when it's been happening over the last few months.

The futures oil contract for the Fall just closed at under $130 per barrel. That means that the final purchase price for the oil when it is pumped off the tankers is locked in at a level nearly $20 lower than peaks of just a few weeks ago. No more speculation, at the end of the day the companies that actually have to refine the goopy slop have set their price. But don't look for retail gas-at-the-pump prices to drop any time soon. Sorry, but that takes a while.

Manufacturing production is...up? New York, always a hotbed of lousy results is reporting an increase in manufacturing production last month. Along with most of the US.

Exports are climbing. With the fall of the dollar, our goods are cheaper for foreign buyers. And they're taking advantage of that fact by snatching up our offerings in ever-climbing numbers.

Government belts are tightening. At least in Florida, the state actually cut the annual budget for '08 and expects to cut it again in '09. That's right: not only raise taxes but also cut spending in order to make our payments. By lowering our future overhead expenses, we're making next year less painful than it could be.

And that's it for the day. Anecdotal evidence? Sure. But it's a reflection and manifestation of a broader trend. The world isn't coming to an end, and we're going to be in better shape to take advantage of the opportunities that lie just around the corner.

-Shawn