Tuesday, February 24, 2009

Whozzat?

Life, work and where I've been for the past 6 months.

For everyone who didn't know, last fall my wife gave birth to our second daughter. Elinor's a beautiful, bouncing baby girl, healthy and sweet. Everyone with children will understand when I say that posting, local social events and just 'hanging out' all walls to the wayside when you bring a new child into the world. And we wouldn't trade it for all the tea in China.

Now, over the next few months, when El's schedule starts to normalize, I hope to get back in the saddle and start throwing my musings, reasonings and ramblings back up here, with the hope that some day my children can learn from our experiences. Hell, they'll make enough mistakes on their own. If they can avoid the ones that my company and I have made, then they're going to be ahead of the game.

One last question: wouldn't it be better to invest $2.6B in paying for non-recurring healthy food to all Floridians for the next 2 years rather than a light rail connecting various central Florida cities? Assumptions: equivalent short-term job creation, equivalent long-term health benefits, lower structural industry change in ag. solution vs. rail solution. Discuss.

Later-
Shawn

Wednesday, August 13, 2008

Cell phun

So it's been over 6 months since I 'upgraded' from a Treo 700e to a VX6800. I still like the bigger buttons and the bigger screen. The slider is fin. and the whole thing fits comfortably in my hand (if a tad too small).

No, my complaint is Microsoft. The phone is running Windows Mobile 6.0. It's supposed to sync with my laptop--and perform the second most valuable function which is to provide me with my contacts, calendar and notes when I'm away from my electronic ball & chain. And god bless Microsoft, they've found a way to screw even that simple function up. This Monday morning the phone lost its little mind, losing the connection with my computer and forcing me to 'restart' the sync. So, it erased the data and connection information on the phone, all ready to re-import my contacts and calendars from the laptop.

And then the ghost of Microsoft arose, with voices wailing and blood dripping down the walls. Windows Vista on my laptop didn't recognize my cellphone. Wouldn't connect to it. Wouldn't talk to it. It might have been a rock trying to talk to a tree for all my laptop cared.

So, for the last 3 days, I've spent countless hours trying to reconnect these two pieces of electronic goo. I'm ready to throw in the towel and go back to the old standby: a pen & paper personal planner.

Microsoft will make luddites out of us all.

IF you guys have any suggestions, I'd appreciate hearing from you.


--Shawn

Wednesday, August 06, 2008

War Coverage?

An interesting article from the Wall Street Journal:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121797955889015047.html?mod=opinion_main_review_and_outlooks

Where are the MSM on this? As American companies, shouldn't they feel the need to report this type of information at the same volume and frequency as the 'negative stuff?' After all, it's our friends, neighbors, sons and daughters who are shouldering this burden--and pushing ever closer to a final conclusion.

I'm a big fan of trends. In every day, anomalies pop up to change your short-term picture and frame of reference. But over time, across multiple locations and as viewed through multiple sources, core truths do emerge and resultant trends are discernible. Yes, the housing market in Florida has turned. Yes, the world's demand for high-tech products and enabling technologies has increased over the past 12 months. Yes, the month-on-month overall status of the situation in Iraq is becoming a more steady, normalized one, with corresponding accelerating troop withdraws in the works.

Any picture viewed from a single point in time, through a single lens, by definition frames what is perceived to be the 'normal status' of the viewed picture. That's the fallacy of minuscule data sampling and limited perspective. Which is why you almost never should make business-altering decisions based on a single experience or event.


-Shawn

Olympic Fever

Is anyone out there really into this year's Olympic games? We all know about the disruption in normal viewing patterns created by the events being held when most of the US is sleeping, combined with the foreknowledge that the internet offers prior to 'live' TV coverage. But over the past month, everyone that I've spoken with seemed to have a hard time even remembering that the Olympics were coming up this August.

Maybe it's the time difference. Maybe it's the overall economic malaise. Maybe it's the lack of any compelling storylines. Wherever it is, I wouldn't want to be a large Olympic advertiser during these games.

-Shawn

Wednesday, July 23, 2008

Economic Development - Vision Statements and Planning

A Time for Choosing, Part IV

Asset-Based Economic Development is a strategy that builds on existing resources—natural, cultural and structural—to create valued products and services that can be sustained for local benefit.

St. Cloud is a great small-town city. We don’t have to be shackled to the economies of the past and we don’t have to be held hostage to the whims of the housing market. But we need to lay out what our future will hold and then use our God-given assets to make that vision into reality. In this week’s article, I’ll summarize the Asset-Based Economic Development plan for St. Cloud, provide some additional examples from other successful implementations throughout the US and propose a Vision Statement for our city.

Before laying out any plan or embarking on any new venture, it’s best to have a goal in mind. At the end of the day or at the end of the trip where do you want to be? Where do you see yourself? St. Cloud needs to answer this question: 20 years from now, what type of a community will we be? My vision for St. Cloud and even Eastern Osceola County is for our city to be a proud, tight-knit neighborhood, bound together by our community activities and our shared sense of commitment to our town. I see that St. Cloud can become a beacon of history and prosperity surrounded by a sea of new and personality-less communities.

That vision statement, or ANY vision statement, should be used to help shape our city’s long-term goals and priorities. It gives direction and framework for future civic, public and private actions. It helps keep us on track and pointing towards our ultimate goal: a better future for our community and our children. When reviewing any major proposals, it lets us ask the question: will this help move us closer towards achieving our city’s goals?

With a Vision Statement for our city in place, we can prioritize and rank the economic development opportunities that we’ve identified through our Asset-Based Economic Development process. If there are 25 industries whose business needs we can meet, we can now rank and order them according to how they in turn meet our needs. We can market and recruit the businesses and industries that will move us further along the path to achieving the goals set out in our Vision Statement. We don’t have to hope for bleed-off from Lake Nona, we can set our own priorities and take control of our future.

If you’ll recall, Asset-Based Economic Development contains four major steps: first, we need to identify our assets-- individuals, associations, institutions and natural resources; second: we identify which industries have general or specific needs that our plus-rated assets could meet; third, we need to narrow our focus down to the industries that would benefit most from being here and that we would benefit most from having her; and fourth, we need to execute multiple, coordinated plans designed to entice and assist clusters of existing and start-up businesses in those designated industries to move into our area. Done within the guiding framework provided by a Vision Statement, ABED has proven that is can help develop and build strong, destination communities.

25 years ago, Pittsford, New York was a sleepy suburb of the city of Rochester. A bedroom community, populated by 35 thousand people who mainly commuted 30 to 45 minutes each day to work in a mid-sized city of 250,000, the town was similar to St. Cloud in many ways. It had a long history of being an agriculturally-based community, dominated by large land-owners and farmers. It was in close proximity to a major metropolitan area and it still had large tracts of undeveloped land. It had an aging population base but a growing number of newcomers who moved into the area for its transportation and public resources—good schools, green parks and a large recreational area along the Erie Canal. But like St. Cloud, the town was split between the agricultural and land-owning community who wanted slow- or no-growth, the business community who wanted rapid economic growth, and the political community who wasn’t trusted by either party.

During the late 1980’s a small group of concerned land owners, businessmen and young politicians arranged a series of meetings and laid out a rough vision for the city’s future which they then used to guide an Asset-Based Economic Development plan. Stepping outside the needs-based development of the past, which put the farmers in conflict with the business leaders, they laid out what the city had, what they thought the city should become and what industries could best help the area achieve that vision. Over time, the plan changed and evolved as new industries sprang up in volumes that weren’t even conceivable in 1988. But the Vision was constant. And now, Pittsford, New York is one of the most desirable communities to live and work in New York State. With a larger population, it retained its small-town feel, still hosting parades, seasonal events, rallies for high school sports and more. They enabled and encouraged industrial development that provided a solid tax base and well-paying jobs for Pittsford residents. Economic Development isn’t a process that takes place over night, but rather over years. And after years of planning and hard work, a city very similar to St. Cloud became a strong, proud, desired community where the children of those planners can now raise their own families.

St. Cloud is still a great, small-town community. With parks and churches, local restaurants serving good, home-cooked food, a beautiful lakefront and a proud heritage, our neck of the woods is a wonderful place to call home. We don’t have to be shackled to the economies of the past, but we need to lay out what our future will hold and then use our God-given assets to make that vision into reality. Other cities have led the way, shown us what mistakes to avoid and shown us how to achieve our long range goals. Now, it’s our time to set our path and make our vision a reality.

We’re in the midst of an election cycle. Right now, local politicians are listening like at no other time. If you believe that we need a plan for our future, that we need a vision for what St. Cloud is to become, then you need to tell people. Email me, email your City Council members or email the candidate of your choice. Let’s not continue wandering into the future, but let’s drive forward with a vision in mind.

What’s your vision for St. Cloud?

_____
Published in Regional Newspapers in Central Florida

Friday, July 18, 2008

Vision

Let's recap. Business is all about three things: changes, plans and execution. Changes happen. Without changes in the world, supplies running low, mistakes in operations, unexpected storm delaying lumber shipments, there is no opportunity. Plans lay out how to use changes to an organization's advantage. In the past, under the dreary and reactionary views of the misguided youths of our parents' age, that was seen solely in the light of selfish individualism. But in a world of limited resources, limited time and capped finance, organizations, families and communities all need to maximize opportunities to survive and thrive. Last comes execution. Plans lay out how to thrive, but at the end of the day, you'd damn well better get the tasks done that facilitate your organization's obtaining of the advantages provided by the opportunity that you're facing.

But'cha know what? Changes, plans and execution are all for naught if you don't have an overreaching, guiding goal in mind. It's exemplary to save for years, to build up the connections and network that can provide your children with the chance to attend medical school--but only if they have the desire and long-term work ethic to become a doctor. No community can be faulted for trying to revitalize a decrepit downtown district--they can be the heart of a vibrant, destination-community where people are proud to live and work. But if you cobble together a series of short-term, patchwork but opportunistic plans, you're going to end up with mush. All that hard work and nothing to show for it, just a bunch of faded, weathered storefronts, with barely enough foot traffic to stir dust on the floor.

What's your life's goal? What's your family's ambition? What does your community want to be in 20 years? Is is a place you want to live in? Will it support you and yours? Can your children fulfill their dreams there?

-Shawn

Thursday, July 17, 2008

Trends

Last December, we predicted that the housing/credit-led recession would bottom out this summer and start to climb out of the doldrums by the first quarter of '09. There are rumblings that we may have been onto something.

Housing sales in Central Florida are... up? Just slightly and still at prices well below the peak of '05-'06, but with inventories holding steads or decreasing, any uptick in sales activity with no depression in prices is a positive trend--especially when it's been happening over the last few months.

The futures oil contract for the Fall just closed at under $130 per barrel. That means that the final purchase price for the oil when it is pumped off the tankers is locked in at a level nearly $20 lower than peaks of just a few weeks ago. No more speculation, at the end of the day the companies that actually have to refine the goopy slop have set their price. But don't look for retail gas-at-the-pump prices to drop any time soon. Sorry, but that takes a while.

Manufacturing production is...up? New York, always a hotbed of lousy results is reporting an increase in manufacturing production last month. Along with most of the US.

Exports are climbing. With the fall of the dollar, our goods are cheaper for foreign buyers. And they're taking advantage of that fact by snatching up our offerings in ever-climbing numbers.

Government belts are tightening. At least in Florida, the state actually cut the annual budget for '08 and expects to cut it again in '09. That's right: not only raise taxes but also cut spending in order to make our payments. By lowering our future overhead expenses, we're making next year less painful than it could be.

And that's it for the day. Anecdotal evidence? Sure. But it's a reflection and manifestation of a broader trend. The world isn't coming to an end, and we're going to be in better shape to take advantage of the opportunities that lie just around the corner.

-Shawn

Wednesday, July 16, 2008

Econinoc Development - Part III

A Time for Choosing, Part III
(published 16 July 2008)

Asset-Based Economic Development is a strategy that builds on existing resources—natural, cultural and structural—to create valued products and services that can be sustained for local benefit.

Over the past 100 years, St. Cloud has grown by evolutionary default. Businesses have moved into the area for their own reasons, setting up shop in areas allowed by the city’s master zoning plan. St. Cloud has grown and prospered when Central Florida has grown and prospered. We gained population when our housing became less expensive than the housing in neighboring areas—a look at the current Economic Stimulus plan for the Housing Industry shows that the key marketing plank is ‘more house for your dollar.’ While that is a wonderful thing for the Housing Industry, it independent of other action doesn’t create more local jobs in industries that aren’t tied to the boom and bust construction cycles.

If we need a better way, a better path for our future, where can we turn? Once we have a ‘grow business’ goal in mind, what steps can we follow to help guide our development and progress? To learn from the mistakes and successes of other cities, we should follow these four steps: First, we need to identify our unique strengths and assets. We need to be able to answer this question: Where do we stand above our competitors: other local towns and cities, other counties and ultimately other states and countries? Second, we need to establish some basic requirements: any heavy industry or manufacturing would have to be green or practically non-invasive to our local environment; we would want an average employee salary, including benefits, to be higher than the median average for our side of the county; we would want to look at industries and sectors that have the potential for long futures—no buggy-whip manufacturers need apply. Third, we need to identify which industries have general or specific needs that our plus-rated assets could fulfill? With thousands of potential suitors in Florida alone, the list of potential business immigrants into Eastern Osceola County is nearly-endless, so we need to narrow our focus down to the industries that would benefit most from being here and that we would benefit most from having here. Fourth, we need to execute on multiple, coordinated plans designed to entice and assist existing and start-up businesses in those designated industries to move into our area.

Individuals, associations, institutions and resources. These are what make up our unique strengths and resources. To drill down into the Individual assets and resources, we need to address the following questions: What’s unique about our population? What population types do we have in the area (tourists, students, residents, retirees, etc.)? What are the education base and the education specialties of our population? What are the civic, community, religious and governmental volunteer bodies that our population donates time for? What do we do well as individuals?

Civic Associations, from the Chamber of Commerce, the Downtown Business Group and Main Street all the way to less formal institutions, are the means through which local residents in can meet to solve problems, or to share common interests and activities. Civic groups are a reflection of the drive and interests of the residents of our area. We need to inventory these bodies, their strengths and how they make us stand out above and beyond our neighbors near and far. We need to identify our area’s Civic Associations’ strengths. We have a vocal and active Chamber of Commerce. We are known for excellent care for our elderly. We have upstanding and generous veterans groups. These and the many other public-minded bodies in St. Cloud are all vital in recruiting and drawing business and industry into our area.

Our area is blessed with many talented and experienced public and private institutions. Private businesses; public institutions such as schools, libraries, parks, police and fire stations; nonprofit institutions such as hospitals and social service agencies--these organizations make up the most visible and formal part of our community's fabric. Accounting for them and enlisting them in the process of community development is essential to the success of the process. They contain business skills and knowledge, financial resources, legal acumen and experience that can direct, enable and fund economic ventures. We need the help of our well-versed City Economic Developer to review and analyze the large and small elements of our economy—who are our major and minor employers, what is the industry-by-industry breakdown for direct employment? What are the business trends over the past 10 years in St. Cloud? What are the knowledge assets of our local businesses? What skills, experience and specialty knowledge do we have that other neighboring areas might be lacking? With mechanized automation continually reducing the need for unskilled labor, what ‘knowledge workers’ strengths do we have—creativity, collaborating, networking and sharing, analyzing, problem solving and inventing—that can help make our area a source of new businesses and new, better-paying jobs? What financial assets and knowledge, what legal assets and knowledge, what political assets and experience do we have? A summary list of the characteristics and assets, physical, financial, political and knowledge, for the industrial sectors in our area would be a huge help in identifying resources which could be used in recruitment of business sectors into Greater St. Cloud.

Further, as an extension of our public institutions, the rules and regulations that have been put in place by our local governing authorities create the framework within which our natural and learned assets can be made available for economic development and job creation—in heavily taxed and regulated areas, job creation and business formation occurs at a much slower pace than in areas of lower-taxation or more reasonable regulation. What are the rules and regulations for business, for various industries and business sectors in and around St. Cloud? What are the local, county and state rules that we can use to help mitigate the initial start-up costs or ‘move-in’ costs to businesses, without hurting individual taxpayers? A wise man once said ‘if you know the (government) rules, you can get almost anything accomplished.’ We need a summary review of the differences between our development and business regulations and our neighbors’ rules, to better lay out our strengths and our opportunities.

Last but most important of all is the asset list of our resources—from the physical environment in which we live, the land on which we sit out homes and the water which flows through our lakes and rivers, to the infrastructure environment of the power lines and transportation systems in our county. What are the physical assets of eastern Osceola County and St. Cloud? What are the educational resources that our area has? What level of schooling can be found in our area and what industries or business sectors do our secondary education providers train students for? What are the medical resources that our area provides? In the state of Florida, Eastern Osceola County is historically not a leader in medical care, but that trend may be changing. We need to summarize the assets and resources that our area has in these natural and provided fields.

Next, after the asset identification, we need to establish some basic business requirements: industry types, desired average salary level, resource requirements, charitable donations and social program assistance, traffic generation, growth potential and more. But to what end? To provide a framework for this process, I propose that our city needs to approve a formal Vision Statement for St. Cloud’s future. Our Vision Statement should be our Hope and Guide, and it should encapsulate what we want our city to become in the future. We can use that Vision Statement to help define the highest priorities that we will need met by incoming businesses and industry sectors.

After laying out our business requirements, we need to identify which industries that meet those requirements have general or specific needs that our above-rated assets could fulfill. And then we need to bring them here. In other words, who needs the assets we can provide and how can we get them here? By this point, we should be consulting with a national business recruiting firm. They can provide the knowledge, experience and personal connections into businesses and industries that could benefit our area. With their personal and professional connections, a national-level business recruiting firm is able to reach business leaders and company executive-level management that we, as a small city in Florida, would find hard to reach. In addition to the professional and personal connections that they offer, another reason to use an outside firm in this process is that it’s in their best interest to facilitate a business migration into St. Cloud that helps our community grow and develop—the better we grow as a community, the better they’re paid by businesses who want to move here.

St. Cloud is a great small-town city. We don’t have to be shackled to the economies of the past and we don’t have to be held hostage to the whims of the housing market. But we need to lay out what our future will hold and then use our God-given assets to make that vision into reality. Next week, I’ll summarize the Asset-Based Economic Development plan for St. Cloud, provide some additional examples from other successful implementations throughout the US and propose a Vision Statement for this great city. For any comments or concerns, I can be reached at svandusen@fortismg.com.